America is facing turbulent times and major challenges these days. Facing hostile enemies abroad, and economic and social challenges at home, we are faced---as in the ancient Chinese curse---with the prospect of living in "interesting times."
To be honest...and I hate to say this...but many of our current problems just reflect the reality that our country---or, at the least, the "elites" that define our country for us---has become. When Society started deeming it more important to protect "self-esteem" than to be concerned about accomplishments, I think we entered a very dangerous stretch of history.
Among the critical moments in a democracy is when the public realizes that it can vote itself money from the public treasury. For us, that moment came during the Great Depression, when we first turned to the Government to rescue us from an internal crisis. Over the last 75 years, we've seen the role of government gradually expanding, at the same time that cultural influences were undercutting our traditional notions of personal responsibility. Now, I think we're facing yet another critical moment...and it's not looking pretty.
At heart, I remain a hopeless romantic, and so I'm still not convinced that things will end in disaster. I hope, instead, that the public will recoil from the spectacles we see in Washington and Wall Street...cashier the lot of them...and start anew, having been chastened about being too trusting when it comes to spending public money. But I've also read about the various stages of development in a democracy---from Despotism to Liberty and back again---and we do seem to be a bit more than half-way through the cycle. And just as Rome collapsed as a result of its own excesses (and was promptly overrun by barbarians), I don't think America is immunve from the same fate, if we let ourselves be guided by our greed and passions, rather than our ideals and principles.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Monday, July 27, 2009
Saturday, March 28, 2009
The Current Forecast: Cold and Gray
The Government, it seems, is up to its old tricks, ignoring pressing problems while solving problems that largely aren't there. This time, though, we may be stuck with an even bigger-than-usual bill for the mess.
Geithner's current plan contains a number of flaws, many of them flowing from the notion that our current problems are "fixable" through governmental action. From this neck of the woods, it seems that our problems---self-inflicted though they may be---are simply not amenable to quick fixes. Sadly, this means that we may be in for a long downturn, one that will not end until the excesses of the past---the overspending and speculation that came along with the wild rush after riches of the past fifteen years---have been paid for.
The Economist carries a piece on Obama's domestic shortcomings to date...which are beginning to become apparent. Unfortunately, though, there are no easy answers: if there were, we'd have done them already. And though it's depressing to think about it for too long, no "plan" we adopt will be perfect. And figuring out what we should do, and where we should go from here, will simply be the harsh and unavoidable ordeal of picking the least terrible from among a host of awful options.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
Geithner's current plan contains a number of flaws, many of them flowing from the notion that our current problems are "fixable" through governmental action. From this neck of the woods, it seems that our problems---self-inflicted though they may be---are simply not amenable to quick fixes. Sadly, this means that we may be in for a long downturn, one that will not end until the excesses of the past---the overspending and speculation that came along with the wild rush after riches of the past fifteen years---have been paid for.
The Economist carries a piece on Obama's domestic shortcomings to date...which are beginning to become apparent. Unfortunately, though, there are no easy answers: if there were, we'd have done them already. And though it's depressing to think about it for too long, no "plan" we adopt will be perfect. And figuring out what we should do, and where we should go from here, will simply be the harsh and unavoidable ordeal of picking the least terrible from among a host of awful options.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Thinking Outside the Box
As we face our current economic crisis, there is one obvious solution to all of our problems that appears to have escaped everyone's attention. It is far simpler than the ones presently being debated in Washington these days, but poses much less of a risk to our future well-being. And, from the looks of things, it stands just as good a chance of making things better, without carrying the added risk of sacrificing our principles for the sake of expediency.
If we simply sacrificed a virgin instead, we'd be doing no real harm to the economy. In fact, by diverting attention away from some of the counterproductive measures currently under consideration, we might actually help things along. And this could easily be turned into a "two-fer" kind of solution, since it would be just as effective at combatting Climate Change (nee Global Warming) as anything the High Priests are currently trumpeting, and far less costly.
And just thinking ahead, hoping to avoid any obvious pitfalls in the plan...in the event that we have problems locating a virgin, we could probably substitute a goat. Or, if we were really serious, a sheep. If I understand the protocol, goats and sheep don't have to be virgins. Historically, the fact that they had to spend so much time hobnobbing with Greek herders in the Good Old Days meant that the requirement simply never occurred to anybody). That's why they're the customary substitute in cultures where virgins are largely unavailable.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
If we simply sacrificed a virgin instead, we'd be doing no real harm to the economy. In fact, by diverting attention away from some of the counterproductive measures currently under consideration, we might actually help things along. And this could easily be turned into a "two-fer" kind of solution, since it would be just as effective at combatting Climate Change (nee Global Warming) as anything the High Priests are currently trumpeting, and far less costly.
And just thinking ahead, hoping to avoid any obvious pitfalls in the plan...in the event that we have problems locating a virgin, we could probably substitute a goat. Or, if we were really serious, a sheep. If I understand the protocol, goats and sheep don't have to be virgins. Historically, the fact that they had to spend so much time hobnobbing with Greek herders in the Good Old Days meant that the requirement simply never occurred to anybody). That's why they're the customary substitute in cultures where virgins are largely unavailable.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
No Shortage of Blame for the Bail-Out Mess
With fingers pointing in all directions, the nation's press and politicians are scrambling to assess blame for the lastest in an unending chain of blunders relating to the country's financial mess. Typical is a recent article in the Washington Post, in which the White House is determined to throw Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner under the bus.
This action comes as the Obama Administration seeks to avoid taking the blame for the failure of Congress to anticipate the level of irresponsibility that bailed-out financial giants like AIG would show, by using bailout funds to provide performance and retention bonuses to the executives and other geniuses who caused the mess in the first place.
In point of fact, it appears that the bonuses were specifically exempted from Federal limitations through an amendment crafted and sponsored by Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut...who was among the vocal critics of the practice until he was reminded that it was the "Dodd Amendment" which allowed the bonuses. And, of course, the amount of money spent---roughly $150 million...or about 0.1% of the amount Congress approved for the hastily-crafted, unread, and essentially undebated bailout package---was too small for them to bother with. Chump change...or so it seemed to them at the time.
Of course, that was before everything hit the fan. Now, our elected leaders are trying to outdo each other in their expressions of outraged incredulity. Simply put, now that they are feeling the heat of an outraged country, Congress is pretending to be shocked---shocked!!---that companies would actually do what Congress permitted them to do. And to prove their outrage, there is talk afoot to impose a confiscatory tax to recoup any bonuses that the executives---some of whom no longer work for the firm that was giving them a "retention" bonus, and many of whom, being foreign nationals, are beyond the range of Congressional sputtering---are too unpatriotic to return.
Of course, changing the law after the fact is unconstitutional: the "Ex Post Facto" clause prohibits Congress from taking action to punish people after the fact. And the "Bill of Attainder" Clause forbids them from passing laws directed against specific people who have roused their ire.
Not that such legal limits will constrain anyone---the Constitution seems to be resemble a giant imaginary sieve these days, and is hardly a thing that politicians bother with when their own self-interest is on the line. But unless people wake up, all the fuss and feathers may very well succeed in distracting enough people to serve politicians' main aim: to divert attention away from themselves---all of whom share a significant share of the blame for our current troubles---and onto the shoulders of a convenient scapegoat du jour.
Of course, some of us keep hoping that the country will wake up and start paying attention to the fools and scoundrels we have in charge of things these days. But then again, some of us are just hopeless idealists...still struggling to hold on to a dream of what this country could be if its people were only wise enough to choose their leaders with the same care they use to pick their breakfast cereal.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
This action comes as the Obama Administration seeks to avoid taking the blame for the failure of Congress to anticipate the level of irresponsibility that bailed-out financial giants like AIG would show, by using bailout funds to provide performance and retention bonuses to the executives and other geniuses who caused the mess in the first place.
In point of fact, it appears that the bonuses were specifically exempted from Federal limitations through an amendment crafted and sponsored by Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut...who was among the vocal critics of the practice until he was reminded that it was the "Dodd Amendment" which allowed the bonuses. And, of course, the amount of money spent---roughly $150 million...or about 0.1% of the amount Congress approved for the hastily-crafted, unread, and essentially undebated bailout package---was too small for them to bother with. Chump change...or so it seemed to them at the time.
Of course, that was before everything hit the fan. Now, our elected leaders are trying to outdo each other in their expressions of outraged incredulity. Simply put, now that they are feeling the heat of an outraged country, Congress is pretending to be shocked---shocked!!---that companies would actually do what Congress permitted them to do. And to prove their outrage, there is talk afoot to impose a confiscatory tax to recoup any bonuses that the executives---some of whom no longer work for the firm that was giving them a "retention" bonus, and many of whom, being foreign nationals, are beyond the range of Congressional sputtering---are too unpatriotic to return.
Of course, changing the law after the fact is unconstitutional: the "Ex Post Facto" clause prohibits Congress from taking action to punish people after the fact. And the "Bill of Attainder" Clause forbids them from passing laws directed against specific people who have roused their ire.
Not that such legal limits will constrain anyone---the Constitution seems to be resemble a giant imaginary sieve these days, and is hardly a thing that politicians bother with when their own self-interest is on the line. But unless people wake up, all the fuss and feathers may very well succeed in distracting enough people to serve politicians' main aim: to divert attention away from themselves---all of whom share a significant share of the blame for our current troubles---and onto the shoulders of a convenient scapegoat du jour.
Of course, some of us keep hoping that the country will wake up and start paying attention to the fools and scoundrels we have in charge of things these days. But then again, some of us are just hopeless idealists...still struggling to hold on to a dream of what this country could be if its people were only wise enough to choose their leaders with the same care they use to pick their breakfast cereal.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
A New Game Coming to Town?
Thanks to a friend, today I stumbled across this fascinating chart and accompanying analysis. It outlines the changes in income growth over the past forty years---broken down by income percentile, to show the effects of different presidencies on different classes of people. Among the things it shows it that income growth is rarely even; and it suggests that some of the wild rhetoric about recent tax cuts benefitting only the already-wealthy may not be too far from the truth. And given the recent economic dislocations, it looks like restoration of some level orderly regulation is in the offing---hopefully done intelligently enough to help, rather than hinder, any economic recovery.
I think the point about intelligent regulations benefiting everyone---including those being regulated---is one that's been lost over the recent past. It strikes me that it's rather like a sporting event: you need very few rules and even less enforcement at the sandlot level...where everyone knows one another, it's largely played for fun, and cheaters are easily dealt with. But the higher the stakes, the more formal structure you need.
The trick at the major league level is making sure that the referees don't take the game away from the players. In the sport I referee (soccer), the skill of the officials makes a critical difference in how good a game it is: the better referees leave everyone alone as long as things are running smoothly, stepping in only when needed---on occasion, forcefully, to prevent trouble from escalating into something ugly. The poor officials try to dictate how the game is played...and the really bad ones either interfere so much that everyone---both teams, as well as all their rioting fans---wants to strangle them...or they don't do anything, which usually leads to the same result.
The American sports model, on the other hand, often has a different mindset: the Referee as mindless bureaucrat. This is why the last thirty seconds of a close basketball game can take twenty minutes: the referee is expected to blow the whistle for every single foul...thereby converting a foul into a tactic. (In soccer, the referee would simply let the foul go...since the team with the lead would benefit more from a running clock and the ball than it would from taking a free throw and giving the ball to the other team).
I think many of the political disagreements we have in this country tend to come about because we're approaching things from different philosophical perspectives...and can't always agree on whether rules exist as a guideline, or simply to be enforced regardless of their effect. Part of the problem comes from the fact that so many "referees" tend to be idiots...but that crafting rules to make them idiot-proof means that they're so hopelessly detailed and complex that they often get in the way of the actual "game" they're trying to govern. This leads to periodic disputes over whether we should have more rules or fewer rules...with each side pointing to the disasters caused by following the other side of the argument. Lost in the equation is any thought about having "intelligent" rules.
In economics, we seem to have devolved into a system where too many of us have adopted an "I want mine" (or worse, an "I want yours") philosophy, rather than viewing things as a non-zero sum game, where intelligence and foresight can lead to a system where everyone benefits. I'm not sure where this leaves us...other than I don't think it will help get us out of the mess we're in, and we may have no choice but to change our ways of thinking.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
I think the point about intelligent regulations benefiting everyone---including those being regulated---is one that's been lost over the recent past. It strikes me that it's rather like a sporting event: you need very few rules and even less enforcement at the sandlot level...where everyone knows one another, it's largely played for fun, and cheaters are easily dealt with. But the higher the stakes, the more formal structure you need.
The trick at the major league level is making sure that the referees don't take the game away from the players. In the sport I referee (soccer), the skill of the officials makes a critical difference in how good a game it is: the better referees leave everyone alone as long as things are running smoothly, stepping in only when needed---on occasion, forcefully, to prevent trouble from escalating into something ugly. The poor officials try to dictate how the game is played...and the really bad ones either interfere so much that everyone---both teams, as well as all their rioting fans---wants to strangle them...or they don't do anything, which usually leads to the same result.
The American sports model, on the other hand, often has a different mindset: the Referee as mindless bureaucrat. This is why the last thirty seconds of a close basketball game can take twenty minutes: the referee is expected to blow the whistle for every single foul...thereby converting a foul into a tactic. (In soccer, the referee would simply let the foul go...since the team with the lead would benefit more from a running clock and the ball than it would from taking a free throw and giving the ball to the other team).
I think many of the political disagreements we have in this country tend to come about because we're approaching things from different philosophical perspectives...and can't always agree on whether rules exist as a guideline, or simply to be enforced regardless of their effect. Part of the problem comes from the fact that so many "referees" tend to be idiots...but that crafting rules to make them idiot-proof means that they're so hopelessly detailed and complex that they often get in the way of the actual "game" they're trying to govern. This leads to periodic disputes over whether we should have more rules or fewer rules...with each side pointing to the disasters caused by following the other side of the argument. Lost in the equation is any thought about having "intelligent" rules.
In economics, we seem to have devolved into a system where too many of us have adopted an "I want mine" (or worse, an "I want yours") philosophy, rather than viewing things as a non-zero sum game, where intelligence and foresight can lead to a system where everyone benefits. I'm not sure where this leaves us...other than I don't think it will help get us out of the mess we're in, and we may have no choice but to change our ways of thinking.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Should We Bail Out the Auto Industry?
I suspect that many people don't really appreciate the dire straits that an implosion in the auto industry would cause...at least, judging from the debate going on in Washington. But I think the biggest problem is that everyone is confused over (a) the scale of the problem, and (b) the constant juggling that's going on with federal money. I think the biggest worry is that funneling money to the car companies will only be sending good money after bad, unless there are major changes in the way GM & others do business, and right now the focus of the debate is (a) the size of the bailout, and (b) comparisons to all the OTHER bailouts afoot. Lost in the discussion seems to be how to restructure the care companies...and the magnitude of the fallout, if GM goes down. Perhaps we're a bit biased, being from Michigan (which would be at ground zero), but I don't get the sense the decision-makers realize just how many other industries and businesses would be affected.
I suspect that if the focus of the debate starts turning to a discussion of facilitating changes in the way the car companies do business in the future, rather than an argument about how much money they want, things might start moving in a more productive direction.
In addition...I suspect that the auto exec's and union officials should either (a) take a course in public relations, or (b) learn to keep their mouths shut. I don't think the people they're asking to rescue them need to hear much besides, "Of course, our management salaries will be slashed to the bone...and any bonuses are out of the question for the foreseeable future," and "Of course, the Union stands ready to do whatever it takes to make the industry competitive again." It sounds like they should all go back and read everything they can find about Iacocca's adventures 30 years ago as head of Chrysler during its darkest days: as I recall, the success of the venture depened upon (a) his personal willingness (well...the perception of his willingness) to share the privations that were coming; (b) his ability to convince others that the rough times ahead would lead to something better, if everyone pitched in and helped; and (c) a certain ruthlessness in execution. I don't see similar leadership today...in ANY of the industries with their hands out.
Speaking of the subject of Chrysler...I remember one W. Martin Makinen saying, about that time, that the biggest danger from the original Chrysler bailout might not be that it would fail, but that it would succeed. I sometimes wonder what would have happened if we'd let Chysler go belly up...and whether that would have just led to a deeper recession back in the late 70's, or whether it would have awakened Ford and GM (and the rest of Corporate America, as well), to the very real prospect of their own corporate mortality, if they didn't learn the lesson of the first oil shocks, and adjust.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
I suspect that if the focus of the debate starts turning to a discussion of facilitating changes in the way the car companies do business in the future, rather than an argument about how much money they want, things might start moving in a more productive direction.
In addition...I suspect that the auto exec's and union officials should either (a) take a course in public relations, or (b) learn to keep their mouths shut. I don't think the people they're asking to rescue them need to hear much besides, "Of course, our management salaries will be slashed to the bone...and any bonuses are out of the question for the foreseeable future," and "Of course, the Union stands ready to do whatever it takes to make the industry competitive again." It sounds like they should all go back and read everything they can find about Iacocca's adventures 30 years ago as head of Chrysler during its darkest days: as I recall, the success of the venture depened upon (a) his personal willingness (well...the perception of his willingness) to share the privations that were coming; (b) his ability to convince others that the rough times ahead would lead to something better, if everyone pitched in and helped; and (c) a certain ruthlessness in execution. I don't see similar leadership today...in ANY of the industries with their hands out.
Speaking of the subject of Chrysler...I remember one W. Martin Makinen saying, about that time, that the biggest danger from the original Chrysler bailout might not be that it would fail, but that it would succeed. I sometimes wonder what would have happened if we'd let Chysler go belly up...and whether that would have just led to a deeper recession back in the late 70's, or whether it would have awakened Ford and GM (and the rest of Corporate America, as well), to the very real prospect of their own corporate mortality, if they didn't learn the lesson of the first oil shocks, and adjust.
JEFFREY CAMINSKY, a veteran public prosecutor in Detroit, Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. His books include the science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the exciting second volume in the Guardians of Peace-tm series, The Sonnets of William Shakespeare, and the acclaimed Referee’s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating. All are published by New Alexandria Press, and are available on Amazon, as well as directly from the publisher.
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